Reference: Pie graph showing caste and ethnic distribution in Nepal
Madhesi demand is an ambitious stratagem for Madhesi homogeneity and its political power, which has neither historical evidence nor ethnical, cultural and linguistic factors nor the geography for the regional dimensionality that can claim such an autonomous Madhes state with the regional autonomy from the district of Ilam in the east to the district of Kanchanpur in the far-west along Terai belt of Nepal. Therefore, such a demand for a Madhesi regional autonomy is an attempt to take unnecessary advantage of the political situation with the threat to historical nationhood of a sovereign Nepal.
In order to claim an autonomous Madhesi state with the regional autonomy Madhes must have historical evidence that can verify territorial points of demarcation of its nationhood within the sovereign Nepal as such as of Tibet in China or Scotland or Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom. Or the claim can be relevant, for instance, during the formation of a new nation under the federal democratic republic setup such as of the United States of America in 1775 after the independence from its colonial rule. Nepal has been independent sovereign nation since 1770 without any colony state or region. If such historical evidence exists for Madhesi nationhood then it can scheme such a claim for its territorial points of demarcation for an autonomous Madhesi state with the regional autonomy. If not, the demand has no historical evidence thus it is utterly irrelevant.
Tarai that was used as a defensive frontier for the feudal oligarchic regime from 1858 to 1947 with its dense forest Dhimal, Rajbansi and Tharu or Janajatis were the most occupant aboriginal ethnic groups. The devastating population growth of Madhesi and Pahadis began since 1970. Current statistics show that 8.7% Janajatis of Terai of the total population of Nepal; total Madhesi homogeneity is 19.1% excluding 8.7% Janajatis and 4.3% Muslims from entire nation.
Enclaves of agrarian population on the outskirts of the dense forest exposed to their communities on the other side of the boarder in the neighboring India were the Maithali and Bhojpuri speaking ethnic groups of people who have been recently homogenized as Madhesi. That is to say Madhesi cannot encapsulate the entire Terai with its diverse ethnicities in a Madhesi state with the regional autonomy.
It is because Terai, in the first place, belongs to its aboriginal ethnic groups - Dhimal, Rajbansi and Tharu or Janajatis. Therefore, in order for them to have right to self-determination their ethnic independence in the current democratic process must be established. They should not be homogenized within the Madhesi enclaves for granted. By origin they are Nepali national they cannot be declassified as Madhesi by the Madhesi movements' mass homogenization.
Linguistically, there are more Maithali and Bhojpuri speaking population in other side of the boarder of neighboring India than in the enclaves of Madhesi population of Terai. Literally there are as much as or more than Maithali or Bhojpuri speaking ethnic groups in Terai. Therefore, based on the linguistic group the Madhesi state with the regional autonomy is not relevant because several different linguistic groups dominate Terai.
Finally, there is no geographical integrity for Madhesi state to have regional dimensionality for its autonomous state because Terai are enclaves of territory, which are disconnected by the hills and valleys of the Inner-Terai. For example, central Terai is disconnected with the western Terai (Nawalparsi, Rupendehi, and Kapilbastu) by the hills and valley of Chitwan Inner-Terai.
Similarly, western Terai is disconnected with the mid-western Terai (Bake and Bardia) by the hills and valley of Dang Inner-Terai. The far-western Terai districts of Kailali and Kanchanpur have no place for Madhesi homogeneity because the entire occupants of both districts are aboriginal Tharu and migrated Khash-Pahadis.
Geographically, therefore an autonomous Madhesi state with the regional autonomy has to be enclaves of territory as colonies of Madhesi political leaderships with the origin of Maithali and Bhojpuri ethnic, cultural and linguistic group. This is the fact of the matter, which is deliberately concealed by the movements with the superimposition of the Madhesi homogeneity to colonize rest of the other ethnicities. This is the political power that Madhesi leaderships have anticipated from the declaration of the Terai as an autonomous Madhesi state with the regional autonomy.
Nevertheless, demand for the constitutional provisions, which guarantee the establishment of federal democratic republic and federal republican state on the basis of regional and historical background of ethnicity and linguistics with the right to self-determination, must be fulfilled as long as within all federal states the local government units are formed with the right to self-determination of resident electorates of the constituencies that make an unit of a local government without central or state supremacy.
Every other demand except for the declaration of an autonomous Madhesi state with the regional autonomy should be fulfilled without delay for the sake of the CA elections. If the political leaderships of United Madhesi Democratic Front did not agree with the government and boycott the CA elections then by all means Nepal at this point must complete at least over seventy percent of CA elections. The Madhesi demand that schemes to homogenize the entire Terai regardless of other ethnicities may never be resolved with Madhesi's agitations and aggravations unless otherwise Madhesi political leaderships find the middle ground to finalize such a claim after the CA election might pave the way for the federal democratic republic.
However, even the government has to mobilize the army during the upcoming CA elections it must not back-up from completing maximum percent of CA elections even some of the violent district of core Madhesi districts are suspended. International communities will have to understand that Madhesi homogeneity of entire Terai is neither relevant nor justifiable for the other group of ethnicities who are also the occupants of Terai region.
The Madhesi political leaderships are the Madhesi elites of dominant Maithali and Bhojpuri ethnic group. But there are also other dominant occupants of Terai region who are aboriginal Tharu, Dhimal and Rajbansi, and hilly ethnic groups and Khas-Pahadi migrants with no leadership in Madhesi movements. Yet they are arbitrarily homogenized as Madhesi by Madhesi leaderships. However, CA elections are important for all Nepali as mandated by the people's movement II for the establishment of peace and the institutions of democracy. Trust between Madhesi political leaderships and the people of Nepal depend on the accomplishments of peaceful and fair CA elections. If Madhesi political leaderships believe in Nepali nationhood and democracy they will not boycott upcoming CA elections. If they do not then they are purely separatists, therefore Nepal as whole nation has to prepare to defend its nationhood.
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